Joe Biden was elected president of the US , winning the battleground state of Pennsylvania to reach the votes needed to secure a majority in the electoral college. Mr Trump has won North Carolina. Georgia certified its result after a hand recount showed that Mr Biden had carreid the state by just over 12, votes. More than m Americans voted early or by post. Control of the Senate came down to two Georgia elections that were decided in run-offs on January 5.
If Republicans win either race, they will retain control of the Senate. If Democrats win both races, they will control an evenly-divided Senate through the casting vote of incoming vice-president Kamila Harris. The Democrats have maintained control of House of Representatives with a reduced majority. States where the difference in poll numbers between Biden and Trump is more than 10 percentage points are classified as states we expect to be solidly in favour of one candidate.
If a state had less than two polls in the 60 days prior to election day, we use the Cook Political Report Electoral College Ratings to assign it a rating. Party breakdown numbers for the outgoing Senate include two Independents who caucus with Democrats as Democrats. Party breakdown numbers for the outgoing House of Representatives do not include five vacant seats and one Libertarian.
As in June , there remain sizable divides among Biden supporters in views of whether they see their vote more as for Biden or against Trump.
In contrast, younger Biden supporters and White Biden supporters are far more likely to say their choice is more against Trump. There is less variation in views among Trump voters, though Trump supporters under 50 years of age are slightly more likely than their older counterparts to say their vote is against Biden rather than for Trump. Many of the demographic patterns of support for both candidates are similar to those in the presidential contest. This is roughly on par with In contrast, men are divided.
In , men favored Trump by modest margins in preelection polls, as well as among validated voters. There are also sizable gaps by race and ethnicity. And the sizable Democratic advantages among Black, Hispanic and Asian American voters are just as large for Biden as they were in Biden currently leads Black voters by 81 percentage points, Hispanic voters by 34 points and Asian voters by 53 points. Note: Surveys are conducted in English and Spanish.
Voters ages 30 to 49 also prefer Biden to Trump by a point margin. This marks a shift from — when Trump held a modest lead over Clinton among voters in these age groups. There continue to be large gaps in candidate preference by education. Most polling companies have corrected this now. But this year there's even more uncertainty than normal due to the coronavirus pandemic and the effect it's having on both the economy and how people will vote in November, so all polls should be read with some scepticism.
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